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Oscars preview: 15 front-runners for best picture


June 15, 2011 | 8:00am

Now that we're nearing the half-year mark, it's time to take a serious peek at the contenders in the 2011 Oscar derby. Most are not yet at the starting gate, so we haven't seen them. But here is what we know about the 15 films we consider to be top Oscar contenders.

"THE ARTIST" -- A French silent film in black-and-white might seem like a tough sell to Oscar voters, but it was well received at the Cannes Film Festival and has the potential to be an art house hit. More important, the Weinstein Co. acquired American distribution rights, and when it comes to Oscars, it's never safe to bet against the Weinsteins.

"THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL" -- Director John Madden was nominated 13 years ago for helming "Shakespeare in Love," which won best picture. His upcoming film about a retirement home in Bangalore, India, has a cast that includes two-time winner Maggie Smith, one-time champ Judi Dench, and two-time nominee Tom Wilkinson, as well as Dev Patel and Bill Nighy.

"CARNAGE" -- Roman Polanski failed to gain any Oscar traction for last year's political thriller "The Ghost Writer," but this time around he's working from a Tony-winner for best play and a very Oscar-friendly cast: Kate Winslet, Christoph Waltz, Jodie Foster, and John C. Reilly, who have four wins and 12 nominations among them.

"A DANGEROUS METHOD" -- Filmmaker David Cronenberg has not historically been an Oscar favorite, but his previous two films, "A History of Violence" and "Eastern Promises," both earned major nominations, and this time around he's working with an Oscar-annointed writer, Christopher Hampton ("Dangerous Liaisons," "Atonement"), in an Academy-friendly genre: the historical biopic. "A Dangerous Method" focuses on the relationship between psychology pioneers Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung.

"THE DESCENDANTS" -- The first collaboration between Oscar-winning actor George Clooney ("Syriana") and director/writer Alexander Payne ("Sideways"). Set for a December release, it's about a man trying to reconnect with his daughters after his wife is killed in a boating accident.

"EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE" -- It's directed by Stephen Daldry, who has been Oscar-nominated for every one of his films ("Billy Elliot," "The Hours," "The Reader"). It's written by Eric Roth, who penned best picture nominees "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Munich," "The Insider" plus best picture winner "Forrest Gump." Its cast is led by Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock. And its subject matter is timely and topical: A boy copes with his father's death on 9/11. On paper, you couldn't devise a more Oscar-ready film.

"THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO" -- Stieg Larsson's wildly popular mystery thrillers have already been made into Swedish-language films, but now the first entry in the trilogy is being remade by director David Fincher, who is on a roll. He earned best picture and director nods for his last two films ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Social Network"). With interest already high and Fincher now considered overdue after his loss this year to Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech"), the film could be a force to be reckoned with.

"HUGO CABRET" -- The adventure film, adapted from a novel by Brian Selznick about a boy living in the walls of a Paris train station, seems like an unlikely fit for gritty director Martin Scorsese, who finally won his first Oscar for the gangster epic "The Departed," but teaming again with "The Aviator" writer John Logan and a cast that includes Jude Law and Ben Kingsley, you can never rule him out.

"THE IDES OF MARCH" -- George Clooney directs his first collaboration with co-writer Grant Heslov since "Good Night, and Good Luck." Viewing a presidential race from the point of view of a staffer, it could be well timed, coming just as the 2012 presidential race begins in earnest. It boasts an all-star cast, including Clooney, Ryan Gosling, Paul Giamatti, Marisa Tomei and Philip Seymour Hoffman.

"THE IRON LADY" -- Meryl Streep must always be considered a possible contender at the Oscars, but her only film in the last 20 years to compete for best picture was "The Hours" back in 2002. That could very well change with "The Iron Lady," in which she plays controversial British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher during a period that includes the Falkland Islands War in 1982.

"J. EDGAR" -- Clint Eastwood failed to get Oscar's attention last year with his supernatural drama "Hereafter," but his chances are probably much better this year. The Academy loves a good biopic (and even a few not-so-good ones), and Eastwood has got a juicy subject (FBI director J. Edgar Hoover) an Oscar-winning screenwriter ("Milk's" Dustin Lance Black), and three-time nominee Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead role.

"LIKE CRAZY" -- This romantic drama, about the long-distance romance between British and American college students won the Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival. It's generating buzz for the performance of Felicity Jones. The last two Sundance winners went on to compete in Oscar's top race ("Precious," "Winter's Bone").

"THE TREE OF LIFE" -- Terrence Malick has only directed five feature films in his nearly 40-year career, including "The Thin Red Line," which was nominated for best picture in 1998. His latest -- about parents raising three sons in the 1950s -- has earned rave reviews and won the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival. It's unusual for the Palme d'Or winner to earn a corresponding Oscar nod for best picture, but those odds look rosier when you consider just the English-language Palme d'Or winners ("The Pianist," "Secrets & Lies," "Pulp Fiction").

"WAR HORSE" -- Steven Spielberg directing a film about war can never be underestimated. He won for directing both "Schindler's List" and "Saving Private Ryan" in the 1990s. This time he turns his focus on World War I and the relationship between a young man and his beloved horse. Oscar nominee Emily Watson co-stars, and the script is by Oscar nominees Richard Curtis ("Four Weddings and a Funeral") and Lee Hall ("Billy Elliot").

"YOUNG ADULT" -- Jason Reitman's last two films, "Juno" and "Up in the Air," both earned picture and director nods. In "Young Adult," he's rejoined by Oscar-winning "Juno" writer Diablo Cody to tell the story of a fiction writer returning to her small-town home after a divorce. The film stars Oscar-winner Charlize Theron.

-- Tom O'Neil

YEA!!! yet another year for double the possibility of a win best actor or director, both would be nice.

That's what I am hoping for Lucy! Can't wait to see The descendants and The Ides of March. I honestly prefer the movies he directs (confessions of a dangerous mind and good night, and good luck).
We'll see, fingers crossed!

Well, as far as I'm concerned, there are only two who should be on this list! Need I say more????

Sounds like George is in for another round of award shows. I have my doubt about The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo having seen the original I just don't know if they are going to do it as well. Not so sure about the guy in the lead what's his name???? We will have to wait and see.

Not so sure what qualifies this site to rate films, but happy to see both of George's 2011 offerings in the list.

From opposing view

By Hollywood Elsewhere on Jul 12, 2011

BEST OF 2011 SO FAR
1. Drive; 2. A Better Life. 3. The Tree of Life; 4. Beginners; 5. X-Men: First Class; 6. Bridesmaids; 7. Win Win; 8. Hanna; 9. Midnight in Paris; 10. Source Code; 11. Cedar Rapids; 12. Meek's Cutoff; 13. Super; 14. The Lincoln Lawyer; 15. Jane Eyre.

MAJOR LEAGUE
1. The Descendants (d: Alexander Payne); 2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (d: Stephen Daldry, screenwriter: Eric Roth); 3. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (d: David Fincher); 4. Carnage (d: Roman Polanski ); 5. The Ides of March (d: George Clooney); 6. The Impossible (d: Juan Antonio Bayona); 7. The Iron Lady (d: Phyllida Lloyd); 8. J. Edgar (d: Clint Eastwood); 9. Moneyball (d: Bennett Miller); 10. Shame (d: Steve McQueen); 11. The War Horse (d: Steven Spielberg); 12. We Bought A Zoo (d: Cameron Crowe; 13. Young Adult (d: Jason Reitman, w: Diablo Cody).

HIGH EXPECTATIONS, WAIT & SEE
1. Contagion (d: Steven Soderbergh); 2. A Dangerous Method (d: David Cronenberg); 3. Drive (d: Nicolas Winding Refn); 4. Haywire (d: Steven Soderbergh, w: Lem Dobbs); 5. Hugo Cabret (d: Martin Scorsese); 6. 7. Melancholia (d: Lars Von Trier); 8. Nanjing Heroes (d: Zhang Yimou); 9. On The Road (d: Walter Salles); 10. Rampart (d: Oren Moverman); 11. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (d: Thomas Alfredson); 12. The Whistleblower (d: Larysa Kondracki); 13. Wuthering Heights (d: Andrea Arnold); 14. Albert Nobbs (d: Rodrigo Garcia).

POTENTIAL QUALITY AND/OR ELITE POPCORN
1. At-Swim-Two-Birds (d: Brendan Gleeson); 2. Blackthorne (d: Mateo Gil); 3. Butter (d: Jim Field Smith); 4. Cowboys & Aliens (d: Jon Favreau); 5. Damsels in Distress (d: Whit Stillman); 6. Crazy, Stupid, Love (d: Glenn Ficarra, John Requa); 7. Dream House (d: Jim Sheridan); 8. Extraterrestre (d: Nacho Vigalondo); 9. The Monk (d: Dominic Moll); 10. My Week With Marilyn (d: Simon Curtis); 11. Now (d: Andrew Niccol)>; 12. The Oranges (d: Julian Farino); 13. Take This Waltz (d: Sarah Polley); 14. 50-50 a.k.a. formerly I'm With Cancer (d: Jonathan Levine).

Looks like a good year for George! Man, what a transition! Or, maybe not. I haven’t been following him long enough to know. But it sure gets me excited!

Hasn't he had 2 chances or been in 2 films that are nominated , about every 2 years, since GNGL? Maybe 2 is his lucky number!

The Lincoln Lawyer - I thought that was just an average movie.

Nice to also see Steven Soderbergh up for something!

The only movie ( IMO) with heavy competition for IOM MIGHT be Girl With The Dragon Tattoo but I'm just going on the original as i haven't seen the new one yet, obviously but, I will hope IOM wins!! I hope Matt Damon ( We Bought A Zoo), mainly because he is one of my other fave actors ,gets nominated although George for the win ( of course )


All IMO Of course

Wouldn't it be nice if there was a best extra award

@Dex: Daniel Craig is playing Mikael Blomkvist. I hardly believe they can do a better job than the original.

I am very excited to see IOM and The descendants!

LouisLane wrote:@Dex: Daniel Craig is playing Mikael Blomkvist. I hardly believe they can do a better job than the original.

I am very excited to see IOM and The descendants!

You and me both!! I am really hoping I am in it! Hey it rhymes IOM for the Win!!

@sisieq, just finished reading Lin. lawyers, was gonna see the movie, but was only average? Did you read the book?

lucy wrote:@sisieq, just finished reading Lin. lawyers, was gonna see the movie, but was only average? Did you read the book?

No. By average - decent movie, don't know why up for an oscar. LOL, but that's just me.

Well I always end up liking the book better than the film, except for once and I can't remember what film it was! CRS!!!!!

Here's hoping this prediction is right!

From The Wrap

And the Next Oscar for Best Picture Will Go to ...
Published: September 07, 2011
By Steve Pond

At the most, only two of what will be 2011's Best Picture nominees have been released. Many of the films likely to be in the running haven't been seen yet. The verdicts from Venice and Telluride have started to come in -- but I wasn't at either of those festivals, and the Toronto Film Festival, where I will catch up with many possible contenders, has yet to begin.

In other words, this is no time for me to be predicting what's going to win the top Oscar next February.

But I don't really have a choice in the matter, so I'm going to do it anyway.

The reason I'm going out on a limb this early, which I know is an exceedingly foolish thing to do, is simple: because I did it last year and the year before, and both times I was right.

In late August 2009, the day this column launched on TheWrap, I surveyed what I termed "a landscape of movies I haven't seen and buzz I don’t trust," and came to the conclusion that "The Hurt Locker" had what it took to win Best Picture.

A year later, in early September 2010, I put on my early prognosticator's hat (or, more likely, my fool's cap) once more, said that what I'd heard suggested the two top contenders would be "The King's Speech" and "The Social Network" (neither of which I'd seen), and decided that the former film "has the feel of a possible winner."

So for two years in a row, I've guessed correctly without having enough information and without seeing most of the contenders.

Can I be that lucky (or, um, that brilliant) three years in a row?

Probably not, but I have to try.

The problem is, I don't see a Best Picture winner in this year's crop of films. Instead, I see reasons why every single film deemed to be a contender will probably fall short.

Nonetheless, here's my ridiculously early, obviously foolish Oscar call: on Feb. 26, 2012, "The Descendants" will be named the Best Picture of 2011.

When I first started thinking about this in early August, I was all ready to name "The Ides of March" as the likely winner. I figured its message -- our political system is completely screwed up -- would resonate this year; Sony would spare no expense to bring home a winner after just missing last year with "The Social Network"; it was likely to get lots of support from the actors branch; and its director, George Clooney, is the consummate self-deprecating charmer, everything "TSN's" David Fincher was not.

But early reviews out of Venice label "Ides" as good but not great -- and more to the point, Clooney's other film, Alexander Payne's seriocomic "The Descendants," is the one that seemed to get all the heat.

[article edited here - katiedot]

So eventually, all roads lead back to "The Descendants," the one film that has picked up the most acclaim from the first two festivals. In a way, it's in the same position as "Slumdog Millionaire" or "The Departed" or "The Hurt Locker" – it's the film that everybody loves at the beginning of awards season, but the one that few people think will have the staying power to be the last film standing.

They were wrong those two years. Payne is respected. Clooney will charm every damn voter … one-by-one, if he has to.

So that's it: since I have a streak to consider, I'm going with "The Descendants."

Last year, by the way, I got lambasted by a few commenters for having the nerve to predict a winner before I'd seen most of the movies. Look, I know this is dumb. And if I'm wrong this year, as the odds suggest I will be, then maybe I won't do it next year.

So if you're one of those who thinks I am, as one person said last year, "a true hollywood d-bag" for doing this, remember what they say:

Third time's a charm.

Wouldn't that be great! Yay!

And an Oscar for Best Actor for George, please!!! He really deserves it!

Nooooooooooo !

Atalante, what do you mean No?? Do you not want our babe magnet, and lusted after one to do well at rhe Oscars???

I don't really think Atalante likes George much anymore. IMO
She makes negetive comments about him all the time. Or maybe she just likes to play games with us? Who knows...

I love Atalante 's sense of humor. Most people don't get it. When I was coming here anonymously, her posts would crack me up

He needs to sweat a bit more !

Atalante is cool, maybe she prefers reality over fantasy. I'm a fan of George's, but see him as a human male which comes with flaws,so there will be times my comments may sound negative, doesn't mean I don't like him.

I say negative comments at times, too, but also good ones. Didn't mean to get your dogs to barking, Lucy! Or Atalante either! I just tried to answer a question that Fluffy brought up, and then I enhanced it with a few questions of my own. But it seems others say Atalante has that type of personality. As you say, she’s cool... And I live in a fantasy land… Thank you!

How many Oscars could George Clooney win this year?

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He should get an oscar for a movie he still has to make, about the rights of women !

He just needs to contact these women and make a script : [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] Easy comme bonjour.

Most women that win the Nobel Peace Prize do it for the “people” and not necessarily for themselves. But to add to your thought pattern, he could do a movie about… The Right of Choice… it seems more in tune with his thought pattern.

The right of choice, euh, wass meinen sie damit nah ?

ehh?

Keine ahnung, Atalante, aber ich moechte das nicht wissen. Lieber sowas privat lassen.

Enigma !

c'mon....

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Oscars 2012: The Season Commenceth!

Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio Among Early Favorites For Best Actor

(CNN) -- The end of August saw the kickoff of the Venice International Film Festival, which overlaps both Telluride and Toronto. The three kick off the annual film industry frenzy known as awards season. See? Los Angeles does have seasons.
Like many of my colleagues, I have seen only some of this year's "Oscar-worthy" films, so the opinions expressed here are based on a mixture of those I have seen with some early buzz and educated guesses. It's early in the process, and things will inevitably shake out over the next few months as more films are screened, so there's no doubt that some of the predictions will change.
Not only that, but some actors are submitted to the Academy for supporting roles when the role appears to be a lead and vice versa, so some might switch categories. You'll also notice that the headings for various sections within the categories aren't uniform, and that's because each category has its own sets of rules with accompanying probabilities and politics.
Complicating things this year are the reworked Academy rules on voting for best picture, which, while far too convoluted to repeat here, mean there will be anywhere from five to 10 best picture nominees. Not to mention the expense of running campaigns. The cost of holding screenings, making screeners and placing ads in the trades makes it harder for the smaller companies to compete with the big boys.
In other words, this is not an exact science. Films I have seen are in listed in bold. All names and titles are in alphabetical order within categories.
Best Picture

"The Artist"
Harvey Weinstein is about as genius of an Academy Awards marketer as there is. Whatever you might say about him (and some have said plenty), the man knows how to get Oscars. If anyone can take a black and white, mostly silent film and turn it into a multiple nominee, it's Harvey. "The Artist" is absolutely stunning, a beautiful and magnificent creation on every level. If voters see it, they'll love it.
"The Descendants"
Alexander Payne ("Election," "Sideways") has created (along with co-screenwriters Nat Faxon and Jim Rash) an almost flawless film that showcases both Hawaii and George Clooney (see below) as you've never seen them before. From what I have seen (and it's very early days yet) this is the one to beat.
Serious contenders include:
"The Help," which sort of came out of nowhere and now looks to be a serious candidate, even though it has its detractors, and "The Ides of March," a very well-acted political thriller that is getting good reviews. It could provide Clooney's second, third and fourth nominations (director, supporting actor and screenwriter with Grant Heslov).
Also on that list are "Midnight in Paris," "Moneyball" and "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" (advance word is that this is a fantastic adaptation of a classic spy novel).
There are also a few high-profile films that haven't been screened for anyone, including "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," which has Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and 9/11, so don't bet against it; Scorsese's 3-D "Hugo"; "J. Edgar" starring Leo DiCaprio; "War Horse" from Steven Spielberg; "We Bought a Zoo" starring Matt Damon and Scarlett Johansson; and "Young Adult," in which Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody team up again ("Juno") with some buzz on Charlize Theron for best actress.

Best Actor

Some mortal locks for this category probably include:
George Clooney, "The Descendants": the best he's ever been.
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball": ditto, although he was magnificent in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," as well.
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist": a forgotten craft showcased by an excellent performance.
Leonard DiCaprio in "J. Edgar": likely, but I haven't seen it.
Thomas Horn, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close": could be the "out of the blue" nominee.
In the "they could be contenders" category, we have Matt Damon with "We Bought a Zoo"; Michael Fassbender with "Shame" and "A Dangerous Method"; Joseph Gordon-Levitt in "50/50"; Ryan Gosling in "The Ides of March"; Gary Oldman in "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"; and Anton Yelchin in "Like Crazy."

Best Actress

In the "strong possibility" category, we have:
Kirsten Dunst, "Melancholia": one of the most amazing performances I have ever seen. Read my writeup from Toronto here. A lot will depend on how much Magnolia is willing to spend on its campaign for her and how much director Lars von Trier's comments in Cannes hurt the film.
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Elizabeth Olsen, "Martha Marcy May Marlene": Wow. Just wow.
Michelle WIlliams, "My Week with Marilyn"
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
A list of "Mmmmm, could be" potential nominees includes Keira Knightley in "A Dangerous Method," Charlize Theron in "Young Adult" and Felicity Jones in "Like Crazy." In the "no one's seen it, but ..." category, we must place Meryl Streep for her performance as former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady."

Best Director

Those leading the pack include:
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Bennett Miller, "Moneyball"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Stephen Daldry, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
"Coming up strong on the outside" is a group that includes Tomas Alfredson for "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"; George Clooney for "The Ides of March"; Terrence Malick for "The Tree of Life"; and Jason Reitman for "Young Adult."
The ones I would term "masters with unseen films" include Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar"; David Fincher and "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"; Martin Scorsese with "Hugo"; and Spielberg with "War Horse."

Best Supporting Actor

These next two are really tough to predict right now, with almost everyone holding front-runner status. Also, I haven't seen many of the films in the supporting categories, so my guesses are likely to be less educated than usual!
Likeliest based on current buzz/past nods:
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Jim Broadbent, "The Iron Lady"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
The rest of this excellent pack:
George Clooney, "The Ides of March"
Tom Hanks, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Tom Hardy, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Ides of March"
Viggo Mortensen, "A Dangerous Method"
Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult"

Best Supporting Actress

Advance buzz favors this quartet:
Jessica Chastain, "The Help" (also in "The Tree of Life" and "Take Shelter")
Vanessa Redgrave, "Coriolanus"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"
Other contenders include Sandra Bullock in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," Carey Mulligan in "Shame" and Kate Winslet in "Carnage."

Best Original Screenplay

There's only one that I would place in my "pretty much a guarantee" slot, and that would be Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris."
Serious contenders include:
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
Dustin Lance Black, "J. Edgar"
James Ellroy and Oren Moverman, "Rampart"

Best Adapted Screenplay

I'd bet my lunch on nominations for:
Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian, "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Other front-runners include George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon for "The Ides of March," Christopher Hampton for "A Dangerous Method" and Eric Roth for "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close."
I know, I didn't touch on the categories of animation, documentaries, cinematography and many other categories. There's plenty of time between now and the awards on February 26, not to mention the Golden Globes, Independent Spirit Awards, SAG Awards, DGA Awards, etc., etc.

George Clooney, "The Descendants": the best he's ever been.

Sounds really good! I hope it pans out for George!

pans out: To get good results

Thanks for the article, Laetval!

Cindi!
you already prevent my question great girl!

George Clooney is leading for best actors categories on Gold Derby Oscarologists .

are they trustworthy?

George is still sitting pretty for The Descendants:

From Gold derby

Oscars Best Actor race: George Clooney out front; Jean Dujardin gaining

By Tom O'Neil



George Clooney ("The Descendants") is still holding on to his lead in the Oscars' Best Actor race, but his support among prognosticators has recently dropped.

One month ago, Clooney had 62% (8/13 odds) support of the Oscarologists polled by Gold Derby. Now he's at 51% (1/1 odds). Currently 20 of the 30 Oscar seers predict Clooney will win.

MAKE YOUR OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Can Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") win the Oscar for Best Actress over Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn") and Viola Davis ("The Help")? What will win Best Picture? Make your early predictions now -- and make changes later. CLICK HERE!
Jean Dujardin ("The Artist") has climbed to second place with 23% support (10/3 odds). Six pundits predict he will prevail on Feb. 26. One month ago, Dujardin was tied for third place (10%) with Leonardo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar"), who's now dropped precipitously to fifth position with 3% (33/1 odds).

In November, Brad Pitt ("Moneyball") was in second place with 11% (8/1 odds), but only two pundits predicted he will win. In the aftermath of his recent Best Actor victory at the New York Film Critics' Circle, Pitt now has 4 of Gold Derby's 30 Oscarologists forecasting a win, but he's fallen to third place behind Dujardin.

Michael Fassbender ("Shame") has climbed from fifth to fouth place. No pundits predict he'll win, but he's got 4% support (25/1 odds) based upon where he falls in the experts' rankings.

Wooohooo!

we will see....

Just thought I'd post the link to this interesting article about the current Oscar best picture crop. There are a few mentions of the Descendants as a lock, but other than that, not George heavy at all. A good read if you're interested in the Oscar process. And it asks an interesting question: what movies not usually mentioned in award season articles so far would you nominate for Best Picture?

Oscarmetrics

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Thanks Missa, interested article. I still hope that G. will be nominated for TD and will get an Oscar.

Me too, ziz, me too. I'd so hate for him to go home empty handed after all this buzz.

I agree. I just wonder how it seems that IOM just died. I have heard NOTHING about it lately. Not even Ryan's performance. Or have I just been living under a rock?

No you are right on the target Mel. I think people have enough of politics in every day life. They are just fed up with it. Maybe this is the reason for a low popularity?.

Maybe so Zizi. That's too bad. Most everyone got rave reviews, and now nothing.

Mentions both films, and seems to support what everyone's been saying about IOM:

THR's awards expert Scott Feinberg examines the top 10 contenders in the best adapted screenplay and best original screenplay Oscar categories.
3:33 PM PST 12/8/2011 by Scott Feinberg
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Chris Helcermanas-Benge/Summit Entertainment
What follows is my latest assessment of the two Oscar categories devoted to screenplays -- best adapted screenplay and best original screenplay -- along with commentary about which contenders in each have positive and negative momentum at the moment. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.
OUR EDITOR RECOMMENDS

FEINBERG FORECAST: 'Dragon Tattoo' and 'Extremely Loud' Last Contenders to Screen

Year of the Hunk: How George Clooney, Brad Pitt Could Save the Oscars

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) ▲
Payne, who won this category seven years ago, appears to be the frontrunner again. Last week, he and his co-adapters of Kaui Hart Hemmings' novel won the NBR's best adapted screenplay prize and were nominated for best screenplay by the Indie Spirits.
2. Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) ▲
This moving adaptation of Michael Lewis' best-seller was released way back in September and had begun to fade from the discussion, but then last week the New York Film Critics chose its star Brad Pitt as its best actor and the film as its best screenplay, and seem to have revived interest in it.
3. John Logan (Hugo) ▲
The charming film version of the popular kids book The Invention of Hugo Cabret is red-hot at the moment, making Logan -- who was previously nominated for best original screenplay Gladiator (2000) and The Aviator (2004) and might also earn a nod in that category this year for Rango -- an increasingly good bet.
4. Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
This take on the hit Broadway play of the same title was penned by two previous nominees for best original screenplay -- for Four Weddings and a Funeral (1994) and Billy Elliot (2000), respectively -- but it's only just beginning to screen, so the jury is still out on its prospects.
5. Tate Taylor (The Help)
The the strongest element of the film is its performances, not its script (which has yet to be recognized by any awards-dispensing group), but I expect that enough voters will want to champion its message to propel it into the field.
6. Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Roth, who won this category's Oscar 17 years ago for Forrest Gump (1994) and has been nominated for it three other times since then, is back with another deeply moving film set against a historical backdrop.
7. Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
The New York Film Critics Circle delayed their vote in order to screen this second adaptation of Stieg Larsson's hit book -- the first in English -- and then elected not to recognize it in any category. The NBR, on the other hand, named star Rooney Mara as its best breakthrough actor and the film as one of the year's 10 best.
8. Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) ▼
This thickly-layered adaptation of John le Carre's novel, which many have struggled to follow, is in a rut: it was completely shut out by the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle, and not even the British Independent Film Awards could find room for it in their screenplay category.
9. Hossein Amini (Drive) ▲
It turns out this neo-noir actioner has more than just a cult following -- last week, the New York Film Critics Circle awarded it best supporting actor (Albert Brooks); the Indie Spirits nominated it for best feature, best director, best actor (Ryan Gosling), and best supporting actor (Brooks); and the NBR named it one of the year's top 10 films.
10. George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) ▼
The buzz for this political-thriller has come to a virtual standstill, with awards-dispensing groups passing on it even though embracing it might result in having Clooney -- who, along with Heslov, scored a best original screenplay Oscar nod six years ago for Good Night and Good Luck (2005) -- show up at their events.

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Thanks for posting Missa. I thought Ides was a good movie but compared to Descendents it does seem to pale a bit. JMO