George's Chance at an Oscar

Hollywood Reporters take on the Oscar race after SAG. Just copied to the part about George, but link below. I hope they are wrong. Loved the Artist, but George was better to me.

SAG Awards Confirm Tremendous Support for 'The Help' -- and 'The Artist'(Analysis)

THR's awards analyst believes that all four winners of SAG's awards for film acting -- but not its winner for best film enesmble -- will repeat at the Oscars.

On Sunday evening, the Screen Actors Guild disclosed the recipients of its 18th annual SAG Awards, and in so doing revealed a lot about the likely outcome of several close Oscar races, as well.

The Screen Actors Guild has existed since 1933, but has only been handing out end-of-the-year awards since 1995. Over the years since then, the SAG Awards' acting nominees and winners have predicted the Academy's acting nominees and winners better than any of the other many awards that collectively constitute the "Oscar season." (It should be noted, though, that the best ensemble SAG Award has not proven to be predictive of the best picture Oscar).
So why is SAG, which is composed of 120,000 actors from around the world, such a good predictor of the choices of the Academy, which is composed of 5,515 people who work in virtually every facet of the film industry (animators, art directors, cinematographers, directors, documentarians, executives, film editors, makeup artists and hairstylists, musicians, producers, publicists, sound technicians, visual effects artists, and writers)?

Because, of the Academy's 15 branches, its acting branch is its largest, by far: it includes 1,183 members (the vast majority of whom are also SAG members), more than twice the number of members in any other branch, and more than 21% of the Academy's entire membership of 5,515. Consequently, the tastes of actors not only determine the Academy's acting nominations (for which the members of each branch can vote only for their own area and for best picture), but are also intrumental in determining the winners of every category (since all Academy members are invited to vote for the winners in every category -- which is somewhat odd, considering that they weren't seen as qualified enough to suggest nominees outside of their given branch -- but I digress). In other words, the SAG Awards essentially serve as a giant survey of the same ilk of people who will also be instrumental in determining the outcome of the Academy Awards.
With that understanding, here is what I believe tonight's SAG Awards results inform us about next month's Academy Awards (for which final ballots will be mailed on Wednesday):

1. Not only can Jean Dujardin (The Artist) beat George Clooney (The Descendants) to win the best actor Oscar ... he probably will.
Clooney had this thing in the bag, or so believed the vast majority of informed people. After all, Clooney is a beloved A-lister who gave a great performance in a very good film and has shown up everywhere this awards season on behalf of it, charming multitudes along the way, whereas, prior to just a few months ago, virtually nobody in his country had even heard of Dujardin. (He has been referred to as "the George Clooney of France," but the blunt reality is that he's a nobody here.)

But, sure enough, the Frenchman who won the Golden Globe for best actor (musical or comedy) beat the American who won the Golden Globe for best actor (drama), as well as with the best actor Critics' Choice Award, and in so doing became the new frontrunner to win the best actor Academy Award, just like the last seven best actor SAG Award winners and all but four best actor SAG Award winners ever.

Perhaps the most instructive case study for Dujardin is one from 13 years ago, when another no-name foreigner (Roberto Benigni) starred in another popular film that was not in the English language (Life Is Beautiful), was nominated for best actor at both the SAG Awards and Academy Awards against a beloved American A-lister who already had an Oscar under his belt (Tom Hanks for Saving Private Ryan, who actually had two), beat Hanks at the SAG Awards, and then, famously, beat him again at the Oscars.
Backstage after his win tonight, I shared the SAG-Oscar correlation stat with Dujardin, as well as another one: over the past 83 years, only three other Frenchmen have ever been nominated for the best actor Oscar -- Maurice Chevalier for The Big Pond (1929) and The Love Parade (1930), Charles Boyer for Fanny (1961), and Gerard Depardieu for Cyrano de Bergerac (1990) -- and none had won. When I asked him how he felt about the now likely possibility that he could be the first person from his country to actually take home the gold in that category, he pretended to plug his ears, as if he couldn't bear to even ponder it; then he began singing "La Marseillaise," the French national anthem; and then he confessed, "Pressure. Big pressure."

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Great analyzing, but I'd still like George to win.

I am confident that George will win.

I hope that these deciding members focus on his incredible performance and not on any gossip surrounding him.

He deserves to win at the Oscars

George is an amazing human being with great talent.

I think too!

For some reason I thought his chance got better after the SAG loss... although, I am not so sure yet...

Pari, history shows that more times than not, the winner of SAG gets the Oscar. There have been a few times it's worked out differently.

Want the "exception miracle" this time then Melbert!! Although I did think Jean was brilliant in his role (the parts that I got to see that is)... I have not validated all of the others yet

Sometimes, I think it can be Brad winning... while Gary seems same chance as Brad... just a feel, not their performance evaluation though ... like either of them being the total "surprise" win... Well...

This year I thought they were all amazing performances and some should have been nominated that didn't, and on any given year any one of them would win. I haven't seen a Better Life yet though. Vastly different types of performances, except maybe Brad and George seem similar and understated, just I think this should be George's year. If he doesn't win, hope it is Gary Oldman, because he always puts in a stellar performance and is rarely recognized for it. Bit tired of the guy coming from out of nowhere with a great performance and winning, especially when other deserving actors have a career worth of excellent material that never got recognized. I know people think it should be judged on this performance only, but that really is hard to do when they are all so different. And the Academy does have a tendency to give to the one who is owed it.

Just look at when people have won. Who really thinks Denzell Washington's greatest performance was Training Day, not maybe Malcom X. Or that Scorcese won for The Departed and not Raging Bull.

So let's hope the best actor goes to George where it should be for a long time of great acting. Remember he never won an Emmy for best actor for ER and that truly was wrong too.

The Emmy thing was SURELY wrong!


and yes
I think he deserves it
getting or not, we don't know
he deserves it

Interesting piece of trivia I discovered while looking at Gary Oldman's IMDB page: He once played Sid Vicious (the rock star) in the film Sid and Nancy. George played Sid Vicious in the stage production of that same story (not sure if the play or the film came first) at the Steppenwolf Theater in Chicago. In fact, that was where he met Talia, who was also working on that show.

I think George would have been really fun to watch as this character. Too bad we all missed it.