Tomorrowland Eyes $50 Million Weekend

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‘Tomorrowland’ Eyes $50 Million Memorial Weekend Opening

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.] May 14, 2015 | 01:57PM PT

Brent Lang

Senior Film and Media Reporter@BrentALang



Disney’s “Tomorrowland” is lining up to win the Memorial Weekend box office despite the fact that the movie is so shrouded in mystery that ticket buyers have only a vague idea what it’s even about. The big-budget tentpole, starring George Clooney, is poised to debut north of $50 million over the four-day holiday, according to industry tracking sources.

The science-fiction adventure, directed by Brad Bird, should pull in more than $40 million over the three-day weekend, giving the pricey film a chance of making back its $170 million production budget. Although tracking is strong and given the presence of Clooney and Bird (“Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol”), “Tomorrowland” represents one of the summer movie season’s biggest risks. It is neither a sequel nor a reboot.
Instead, it is an original movie that arrives cloaked in secrecy and without the benefit of a comicbook series or toy line to precondition viewers for the kind of ride that’s in store.

“They’re taking the approach that they want to surprise the public and not give too much away in their trailer, but the public is conditioned to know a lot about whatever movie they’re walking into,” said Phil Contrino, VP and chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, adding: “The big thing is the Disney name. It just brings in families.”

Given how little moviegoers know about the film, its box office tracking could still be swayed by reviews, which are embargoed until Sunday.
It will go head-to-head with Fox’s “Poltergeist,” a PG-13 remake of the classic horror film that could siphon some teenagers away from “Tomorrowland.” “Poltergeist” is on track to debut to between $25 million to $30 million over the four-day weekend, according to industry tracking services.
“Tomorrowland,” which draws on company founder Walt Disney’s futuristic visions of a utopian society, features Clooney as a mysterious inventor and Britt Robertson as a young woman who finds a portal to a distant world. It debuts in the U.S. on May 22 and will roll out in most major foreign territories that same weekend, including the U.K., Russia, Italy, and Germany. A China release is scheduled for May 26 and will include Clooney’s first visit to the People’s Republic.

The film will be more or less done with its foreign debuts by June 6 when it bows in Japan.

The film’s profile has been rising following its premiere last weekend at Disneyland. Clooney has been making the talkshow rounds to talk up “Tomorrowland,” and the studio has begun to advertise heavily on television, on billboards and across other platforms. Disney hopes that the picture will benefit from a lack of family offerings at the multiplex. The last films pitched at moviegoers with children were “Home,” which bowed in March, and “Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2,” which debuted in mid-April.

Contrino likens “Tomorrowland’s” challenge to the hurdle facing “Mad Max: Fury Road.” That futuristic thriller is a sequel, but 25 years lie between installments, meaning that most consumers will approach it as an original proposition. Nothing is more difficult to sell in Hollywood than a fresh idea.
“They need time for people to discover them,” he said. “But once they open, I think they’re going to be hits.”

$50 Million

Am I just being greedy or does that sound like not a lot? I've lost track of what a good opening weekend is supposed to be for these tentpole films.

It'll be a little lower than Gravity but Gravity also out-performed its prediction number a lot during the weekend.

Thanks.  I thought that this was going to be Disney's big summer hit?  I know Gravity was also expected to be huge, but I'm kind of thinking Tomorrowland should be massive; bigger than Gravity?

Katie - I thought this would have been a sure-thing blockbuster given it's appeal to such a wide audience (sci-fi freaks, kids/families, George's fans  ) but I can't figure out their marketing strategy. They basically waited until the last minute to push the movie and now they're blitzing the media. They're up against a couple of huge tentpoles, so maybe they figured this was the most cost effective way to publicize the film without going broke if it doesn't do well. If the reviews are good maybe they'll be more aggressive.

I haven't seen any of the other stars pushing it.  The only interviews I've seen them in, they are with George while he talks about his wife.

Katiedot wrote:Thanks.  I thought that this was going to be Disney's big summer hit?  I know Gravity was also expected to be huge, but I'm kind of thinking Tomorrowland should be massive; bigger than Gravity?

don't think it will end up being bigger than Gravity. Its production cost more than $170 million which is bigger than Gravity but it won't have the long run status being in awards season as Gravity had. It could just be a very good summer movie though. People won. being talking about it for over six months like they did with Gravity.

melbert, actually Britt Robertson and Tim McGraw also promoted it a lot. and the director and writer also did a massive amount of interviews in the geek fanboy and Disney fans communities.

Thanks Sevens.  I guess those aren't my circles.

Brad Bird movies don't necessarily open huge, but they "have legs" and gain big box office numbers by good word-of-mouth. I think it's impossible for him to make a bad movie. He has an unusually sharp sense of story.

BTW, if I recall correctly, The Incredibles opened to something like $65-70M, which isn't a huge number in animated family fare, but went on to make more than $250M in just domestic box office. Ratatouille made $47M its first weekend, and made more than $200M domestically.

Tomorrowland on a huge techy screen with a story and direction by Brad Bird, and starring George Clooney, and also happens to have Tim McGraw who has his own big following, will do great business. Trust me.

I really hope so.  I'd love to see George in yet another mega hit film.